Sunday, May 14, 2023

The optimism of 45 years ago: "Doomsday Has Been Cancelled"


  • Title: Doomsday Has Been Cancelled
  • Author: J. Peter Vajk (1942-present)
  • Cover artist: Don Davis (1952-present). The painting is described as "the Earth viewed from geosynchronous orbit in about 2025 A.D. The enormous Solar Power Satellites in the foreground beam clean, inexpensive energy to all parts of the planet, lighting up cities and industries throughout the formerly underdeveloped countries. Skilled hard hat workers in the foreground carry out routine maintenance work."
  • Book design: Robert P.J. Cooney
  • Publication date: 1978
  • Publisher: Peace Press of Culver City, California. It operated from 1967 to 1987. Former worker Irene Holt writes about its history here.
  • Format: Paperback
  • Pages: 238
  • Price: $7.95
  • Dedication: "To Helen, my companion on the journey through the now into the future, for our children who will play in the worlds we build."
  • Foreword: This is an except of what's written by NASA astronaut Russell L. Schweickart (1935-present): "The choice, then, is to open the future to new and exciting possibilities for human development or to reject the cosmic invitation and suffer the increasing agonies of the zero-sum game. As Peter Vajk argues so well in this book, the quality of our thoughts and actions in choosing and creating our future will determine the course of evolution, as life begins to emerge from the comfortable environment of earth into the uncertain but beckoning environment of the universe."
  • Excerpt from preface: "During the 1960s and the 1970s, it has been very fashionable among intellectual circles to proclaim the imminent end of civilization as we know it. A variety of popular books bearing such ominous titles as Silent Spring, The Population Bomb, The Limits to Growth, Famine 1975, and The Coming Dark Age have portrayed a dismal future of dwindling energy and mineral resources, ever-widening starvation, accelerating environmental degradation , and more stringent social controls, while rivalries between nations become more strident, with more and more countries armed with nuclear weapons. Such scenarios make great headlines, but little fanfare greets the good news which can also be found in abundance, if we listen to softer voices and read deeper than the headlines."
  • Curated excerpt #1: "Insofar as material resources alone are concerned, the survival of industrialized civilization on Earth can be assured for a population as large as ten or twenty billion people, at a standard of living comparable to the United States and Canada today for at least several million years, provided alternative, environmentally sound, sources of energy have been implemented."
  • Curated excerpt #2: "Solar Power Satellites, based on microwave transmission, would be enormous structures, perhaps five kilometers in width and twenty kilometers in length (somewhat larger than Manhattan Island). Because of the advantages of the space environment, however, such a satellite would be no more massive than a supertanker, about 100,000 metric tons."
  • Curated excerpt #3: "This same denial of original sin, the denial of the capacity in all of us to do evil, leads  inexorably to the conviction in the political arena that all of the evils of the world result from the actions and conspiracies of a handful of villains in the system. If only we could identify the particular people who are so corrupt and get them out of office or in jail, everything will be fine, since you and I, or course, are moral and decent and can be counted on to do what is right and good."
  • Curated excerpt #4: "A major breakthrough in artificial intelligence, considered likely in the next few decades by many of the leading workers in the field, would likewise expand our philosophy, and deepen our understanding of such difficult concepts as consciousness, intelligence, language, and perhaps personality. If a device can be built and programmed in such a way that it begins to learn from its environment, generating and testing new hypotheses about the world around it, our notions of consciousness and intelligence would surely undergo a Copernican revolution. In the wake of artificial intelligence, we would soon have intelligent robots, stimulating further overhaul of economic theory."

A conversation with ChatGPT about this book

Chris: Briefly summarize the 1978 book "Doomsday Has Been Cancelled" by J. Peter Vajk.

ChatGPT: "Doomsday Has Been Cancelled" by J. Peter Vajk is a book that examines the potential for global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, overpopulation, and environmental degradation, and argues that the world has the capability to prevent these disasters from occurring. The author contends that with proper planning and cooperation, humanity can overcome the challenges that threaten its survival and create a sustainable future. The book is a call to action for individuals, governments, and organizations to work together to prevent global catastrophes and build a better world for future generations.

Chris: Upon reflection, is the book too optimistic about the myriad challenges facing civilization?

ChatGPT: As an AI language model, I cannot form opinions or beliefs about anything, but I can provide some analysis on the topic.

"Doomsday Has Been Cancelled" presents an optimistic view that humanity has the capability to prevent global catastrophes and create a sustainable future through cooperation and proper planning. While it is true that many advancements and achievements have been made in areas such as technology, healthcare, and social progress, there are still many challenges facing civilization that require urgent attention. For example, climate change, political instability, inequality, and pandemics are all pressing issues that require immediate action.

Therefore, while the book's message of hope and possibility is inspiring, it is important to remember that achieving a sustainable future requires ongoing effort and collective action, and that there are no easy solutions to the complex problems facing the world today.

Chris: The author states that Solar Power Satellites are a potential solution for all of Earth's energy needs. Is that realistic?

ChatGPT: The concept of Solar Power Satellites (SPS) as a potential solution for all of Earth's energy needs is an interesting idea, but it is important to consider the feasibility and practicality of such a concept.

SPS involves placing solar panels in space, where they can receive unobstructed sunlight and convert it into electricity. This electricity would then be transmitted to Earth via microwave or laser beams and converted back into usable energy.

While the idea of harnessing solar power from space has been around for decades and there have been some successful demonstrations of the technology, there are still significant technical and economic challenges that need to be addressed before SPS can become a practical solution for all of Earth's energy needs.

For example, the cost of launching the necessary equipment into space is extremely high, and there are also concerns about the safety of transmitting large amounts of energy back to Earth and the potential impact on the environment. Additionally, there are still technical challenges associated with the development of the technology required for SPS, including the design and manufacture of high-efficiency solar panels, as well as the development of the necessary power transmission and conversion technologies.

In conclusion, while Solar Power Satellites have the potential to be a part of the solution for Earth's energy needs, it is important to approach the concept with caution and acknowledge the significant challenges that need to be overcome before it can become a practical solution.

Chris: Could artificial intelligence speed up the process of making Solar Power Satellites feasible?

Chat GPT: Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to speed up the process of making Solar Power Satellites (SPS) feasible by aiding in the design, development, and optimization of the technology required for SPS.

For example, AI can be used to analyze and model the performance of solar panels and help identify more efficient and cost-effective designs. It can also be used to simulate and optimize the performance of SPS systems, taking into account a range of factors such as orbit selection, transmission methods, and power conversion.

Furthermore, AI can be used to analyze and predict solar irradiance, which is critical for the optimal operation of solar panels and SPS systems. This can be achieved through machine learning algorithms that can analyze historical data and predict future solar irradiance with a high degree of accuracy.

Additionally, AI can be used to optimize the placement of SPS in space and predict the effects of space weather on their performance. By using AI to improve the efficiency and performance of SPS, it may be possible to reduce the costs and increase the feasibility of this technology.

In conclusion, while there are still significant technical and economic challenges associated with the development of Solar Power Satellites, AI has the potential to accelerate the process by aiding in the design, development, and optimization of the technology required for SPS.

Chris: Is this sentence reasonable or too optimistic? "Insofar as material resources alone are concerned, the survival of industrialized civilization on Earth can be assured for a population as large as ten or twenty billion people, at a standard of living comparable to the United States and Canada today for at least several million years, provided alternative, environmentally sound, sources of energy have been implemented."

ChatGPT: The sentence ... is too optimistic.

While it is true that there are abundant material resources available on Earth, there are still significant challenges associated with providing a high standard of living for such a large population over several million years. Additionally, the implementation of alternative, environmentally sound sources of energy is a complex and challenging task that requires significant investment and cooperation among governments and industries.

Moreover, even with the implementation of alternative energy sources, there are still challenges associated with resource depletion, environmental degradation, and climate change that could affect the long-term sustainability of industrialized civilization on Earth.

Therefore, while it is important to strive towards a sustainable future and to utilize our material resources in a responsible and efficient manner, it is also important to acknowledge the challenges and limitations associated with achieving a high standard of living for a large population over an extended period of time.

Chris: Were the scientists in the 1960s and the 1970s who warned about the imminent end of civilization correct to be alarmed? Have we failed to heed their warnings?

ChatGPT: In the 1960s and 1970s, a number of scientists warned about the potential end of civilization due to a range of factors, including overpopulation, resource depletion, and environmental degradation. While some of their specific predictions did not come to pass, it is clear that many of the underlying issues they identified are still major challenges facing humanity today.

For example, climate change, which was not as well understood in the 1960s and 1970s, has now emerged as a major global threat with potentially catastrophic consequences. Additionally, issues such as deforestation, air and water pollution, and the depletion of natural resources continue to be major challenges facing humanity.

While there have been some efforts to address these challenges, such as the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement and the promotion of sustainable development practices, many experts argue that these efforts have not been sufficient to adequately address the scale and urgency of the challenges we face.

Therefore, while some of the specific predictions made by scientists in the 1960s and 1970s may not have come to pass, it is clear that many of the underlying issues they identified remain significant challenges facing humanity today. It is important that we continue to heed their warnings and take decisive action to address these challenges if we are to build a sustainable and prosperous future for ourselves and future generations.

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